Tuesday, March 17, 2009

Making Sense of the Chaos

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What may seem as a series of random chaotic moves to the untrained eye, is indeed a well orchestrated plan to put some order to the chaos. Here is what we know so far:
1. AIG has achieved a unique status with the US government (we shall call it Bailout Consolidator), by which it can secure multiple mega-bailout packages on request.
2. Most of the funds are subsequently channeled to major financial institutions (GS, SocGen etc.) thus sparing the government the administrative nightmare of having to deal with multiple individual bailouts presumably on a weekly basis.
3. A non-negligible part of the funds is used to pay bonuses to AIG employees presumably for the market consolidation services they are providing.

The next logical step is obvious. In the name of fair competition, part of AIG’s next bailout package will be used to pay the bonuses of every single Wall Street employee removing the one major obstacle for the proper functioning of the credit markets, while further elevating the company’s status to Bailout/Bonus Consolidator.
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